The New York Times: Russia-Ukraine War Briefing

 Putin's illegal annexation of four Ukraine regions.

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Russ Roberts (https://hawaiigeopoliticalnews.com).

September 30, 2022 By Yana Dlugy Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict. A programming note: Today is my last day writing this briefing. It’s been a pleasure to bring you news about this all-important conflict. The team will continue to report on the war and its implications. Russia launched rocket, drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian towns and cities overnight. One strike killed 25 civilians in Zaporizhzhia. NATO said that the Nord Stream gas pipelines had been sabotaged and vowed to respond to any attack against its members’ critical infrastructure. Follow our live updates. Track the invasion with our maps. Putin said Russia was in an existential conflict with the “enemy” West.Alexander Nemenov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Putin’s illegal annexation President Vladimir Putin signed decrees declaring four Ukrainian regions part of Russia and delivered a fiery speech assailing the U.S. for “Satanism.” The move marked an escalation in the war and positioned Russia as fighting an existential battle with Western elites he deemed “the enemy.” Putin said that residents of the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south would become Russian citizens “forever” and that Russia would now fight for these regions “with all the forces and means at our disposal.” Even by Putin’s antagonistic standards, the speech was extraordinary, a combination of bluster and menace against the American-led “neocolonial system” with an appeal to the world to see Russia as the leader of an uprising against the U.S., my colleague Anton Troianovski writes. His speech came against the backdrop of Russian setbacks on the battlefield. Even as he spoke, the Ukrainian army had moved closer to encircling the Russian-occupied town of Lyman, a strategically important hub in the Donetsk region. Soldiers near Lyman last week. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times The annexation is viewed as illegal by the West and followed referendums organized by Russian proxy officials in the four regions, where most of the residents have fled. The people who did vote sometimes did so at gunpoint. The West vowed to never accept Putin’s actions. The U.S. announced new sanctions and President Biden vowed that “the United States will always honor Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.’’ President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he was fast-tracking Ukraine’s application to join NATO and accused the Kremlin of trying to “steal something that does not belong to it.” “Ukraine will not allow that,” he said. By framing his efforts as an existential fight for Russia’s survival, Putin was attempting to shift the focus of the war away from his army’s losses to the space where he seems to feel the most confident: a battle of wills with the West. Putin offered few details on whether he may be prepared to use nuclear weapons. He noted that the U.S. was the only country to have used nuclear weapons in war, adding: “By the way, they created a precedent.” More on Putin’s latest move: Putin’s annexation is a declaration of war against the democratic world and democracy itself, Anne Applebaum writes in The Atlantic. Putin’s provocation has placed the West in a bind as it seeks to keep the war from escalating further, Susan Glasser writes in The New Yorker. Scholars who study how wars end think that Putin may escalate the war further by using small nuclear weapons, Keith Gessen writes in The New Yorker. JOIN US ON TELEGRAM Follow our coverage of the war on the @nytimes channel. Mikhail Khodorkovsky speaking during a conference in Beverly Hills, California, in May.Patrick T. Fallon/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Khodorkovsky’s view As part of our “Voices” series, I asked Mikhail Khodorkovsky how the war will affect Russia in the long term. Once Russia’s wealthiest businessman, Khodorkovsky was arrested in 2003 after he made his opposition to Putin public. His company, Yukos, was dismantled and he spent 10 years in prison before Putin pardoned him, in what was seen as a goodwill gesture shortly before the Sochi Olympics. He now lives in London. Our conversation was in Russian. Putin has ruled Russia for some 20 years. How will this war affect his reign? Mikhail: This war has seriously undermined the prospects of this regime. It’s approaching its limit. It can either remain in this position or backpedal. But this regime won’t be able to backpedal, in part because it’s in serious conflict with the West. The West can permit itself to soften its position, but it won’t be able to sit around the same table with these people. Do you think Russia could collapse? People who are wishing for Russia to fall apart, if they think about it a bit, this is the most dangerous thing that can happen. Because there’ll be five, six regions with nuclear weapons. The breakup of the Soviet Union still resulted in a huge number of bloody conflicts and God saved us because there were no nuclear weapons in these conflicts. A second possibility is a restructuring of federal power organs, like what the U.S. went through. In other words, a point where the states came to a consensus on various questions, but the main power remained at the state level, not with the federal government. For Russia, this wouldn’t be that bad. Only a top-down centralized system has a need for an external enemy. That’s why I believe in the wisdom of the West and the ability of Russian regions to build a new system of power already today. You’re skeptical? Of course 83 regions won’t be able to do that. But 15-20 regional centers? Without a doubt. The third option, which seems the most probable to the West, is the inertia one — that another person will take the place of Putin. I don’t think this is a good option because any other person will need an external enemy in order to consolidate power. What else we’re following To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription. In Ukraine Russian forces have detained Ukrainian prisoners of war in horrible conditions, subjecting them to beatings and denying them food, the Ukrainian parliamentary commissioner for human rights said. Around the world Finland barred Russians from entering the country as tourists, closing the last entry to the E.U. to those fleeing the draft. E.U. ministers agreed to tax the profits of energy companies as part of emergency measures to soften the impact of soaring energy prices. The Pentagon plans to set up a new *mission in Germany* to arm Ukraine, signaling an expectation that Russia’s threat will persist for many years. We also recommend With the draft, Putin is alienating the ordinary Russians that have long been the foundation of his rule, Andrei Kolesnikov writes in Foreign Affairs. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the weekend, Carole Landry will be here on Monday. — Yana Email your thoughts to warbriefing@nytimes.com. Did a friend forward you the briefing? Sign up here. Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving these emails, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences. 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